What is the Weimar Republic?

Lemmings all in the pool Dow Jones index

If you ask me a question, I will answer it!

The categories include:

• Financial : Stocks, Options, Commodities, Forex Trading...
• Insurance: Life, Health, Auto...
• Pension Plans: 401(k), Defined Benefits...
• Financial Protection: Banks, Credit Unions, Mortgages
• Legal Protection: Your Rights under the law...
• Physical Protection : Legal system...
• Firearms Training: Self-Defense training...
• Survival Training: Urban Areas, Wilderness Areas...

Doc, I read your articles few years back and everything folded according to your theory. It was hard for me to believe at that time but almost everything was true the way you had explained. Hats off to you !

• My question, where we go from here?
• How many years the downturn will last?

Regards,

Jeet.

Hi Jeet,
My Harmonic Cyclical Theory states that secular markets run for 18 years. We started the secular bear market cycle in 2000 to 2003 with a cyclical bear market, last 18-36 months. Then we started a cyclical bull market from the lows in March 2003 to 2007. The Feds interest rate cuts and the vast amounts of money created by the "carry trade," caused the bull market to make all time new highs. Just since Oct. 07, the market has given up 40% of those gains, mostly in the last 4 weeks. IN 1930-1948, a secular bear market caused by deflation, declined by 80%. In 1948-1966 we had a normal economic expansion secular market after world war II. In 1966-1984, we had a secular bear market caused by inflation. Then in 1984-2002 we had the largest secular bull market, caused by the baby boom generation from war world II.
The secular markets overlap each other by 18 months when alternating from bull market to bear market. Hence, the uncertainty during the last bear market in 2000-2003. The last cyclical bull market reaching all time highs was caused by the Fed creating the housing bubble. This current bear market cycle should last only 18-36 months or not depending upon two factors.

• Will the baby boomers begin liquidating their pension plans
• Can the Fed re-inflate the economy without causing hyper-inflation? (Weimar Republic) ( See this link for more info. )

The typical bear decline during an inflationary bear market is -45% and during deflationary bear markets could be as high as 80% I know, stop laughing, remember the NASDAQ index at 5000 points! How low did it go in 2003? The NASDAQ declined 80%!!

Now in 15 days we will see if the market stabilizes, given the "Obama" factor. If the market stabilizes, we will see higher taxes for everyone or the Fed will continue to print money like the Weimar Republic. If the Dow Jones Index falls below 7200 points, we will be heading lower into a depression.

I will be answering more questions concerning 401(k) plans, insurance policies, and financial survivor plans in later posts.

Thanks Jeet for your question.

God Bless


Doc

BONDS BOMBSHELLS: Your Worst Financial Decision Ever?

Word Cloud for this Post.

Related articles by Zemanta

• More quantitative easing is on the way - and that's a good thing (telegraph.co.uk)
• TARP Program Could Be Extended: Washington Post (huffingtonpost.com)

What Is the Weimar Republic?